Coming off the worst year in tourism history, International tourist arrivals were down 83 percent in the first quarter of 2021 as widespread travel remained subdued in the face of surging COVID infections. However, the UNWTO Confidence Index shows signs of a slow uptick in confidence. Following an estimated $1.3 trillion loss in export revenue in 2020, travel restrictions largely remained in place through the first months of 2021, as governments were desperately trying to curb the spread of new, potentially more dangerous variants of the novel corona-virus.
Vaccinations will be key for recovery, but we must improve coordination and communication while making testing easier and more affordable if we want to see a rebound for the summer season in the northern hemisphere.
While the brief rebound in the summer months of 2020 had fueled hopes of a quick recovery for the tourism sector, those hopes were quickly dashed by the fall/winter wave of the pandemic. Six months into 2021, with vaccination campaigns well underway and case numbers receding in many countries, a sense of optimism is gradually returning as the tourism industry has its eyes set on the upcoming summer season. According to a recent UNWTO survey, travel experts remain cautious in their outlook, however, with the vast majority not expecting a return to pre-pandemic levels before 2024 or late.
“There is significant pent-up demand and we see confidence slowly returning,” UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said, pointing out the key role of vaccinations on the road to recovery. He also urged governments to “improve coordination and communication while making testing easier and more affordable” in order to facilitate a travel rebound this summer. Among the experts surveyed, 16 percent expect a significant uptick in Q3 2021, 22 percent think the rebound will come in the fourth quarter and 60 percent don’t expect a meaningful recovery before 2022.
COVID’s impact on tourism reduces world exports by 4%.
The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer also depicts the pandemic’s economic impact. In actual terms (local currencies, constant prices), international tourism receipts fell by 64% in 2020, equating to a loss of over US$ 900 billion, reducing the overall value of global exports by more than 4%. The entire loss in international tourism export income (including passenger transportation) is almost US$ 1.1 trillion. The most significant decreases in receipts were in Asia and the Pacific (-70 percent in real terms) and the Middle East (-69 percent).
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