Post lockdown, flexibility will be critical to success in the first year of the restart, says Brian Pearce (Chief Economist). Below are some of the analysis done in numerous aspects that could provide some clarity where the industry stands as of now. These statistics enable us to predict the travel industry as a whole, what international travel landscape and its foreseeable future, as well as its repercussions on the travel industry in general.
Depth of COVID19 impact far exceeds previous crises
RPKs 20% fall after 9-11 and 12% after SARS vs 95% fall in April 2020
Previous crises allowed diversion to stronger regions
No such flexible response in fleet deployment possible this time
1st wave of COVID-19 far from over & bookings are low
Airlines cannot plan schedules for N Winter season with any certainty
The latest survey shows passengers even more cautious
Now only 45% will fly within 1-2 months. The previous survey shows 60%
Airlines have even less visibility from forward bookings
Passengers are booking flights much later. 41% only 0-3 days ahead.
No sign of a rapid return to travel even in summer months
Airlines must plan winter schedules now but zero visibility of demand
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Lack of demand visibility widespread across regions
Airlines have little evidence on which to schedule restart network
Demand for long-haul travel remains close to zero
Normally airlines would have sold 14% of tickets for the start of the winter season
Load factors likely to remain well below breakeven
Without schedules flexibility airlines will be unable to fill seats
Lack of summer cash flow adds to a fragile situation
Airline business seasonal with cash flows always weak in the winter season
The key to survival in the winter season will be flexibility
An extended waiver on 80:20 slots rule needed to give the necessary flexibility
If slots lost, long-haul connectivity may not be restored
Flight banks at hub airports require certain slots at each end
So there is a risk that city-pair air connectivity will be lost
94% airport-pairs connect indirectly, though most travel on trunk routes
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